Ski Southeast Messageboard

its 2 lines.

1/4 of a line.

.5 of a line.

can you give us the cliff notes version.

Like I said.

drmnofpow wrote:
can you give us the cliff notes version.



sure tell this dude to quit posting so i can. i had the last posts in all threads on the front page this morning, and they come and ruine that. i want them to quit posting. so ic an.

But I have so much to say.

Snowy pattern setting up...





THE SKIING WEATHERMAN’S WEATHER MISSIVE 01/24/06



Every once in a while, a cold front comes barreling through the east, with not only a dramatic drop in temperatures, but also with enough moisture and lift in the atmosphere to produce snow squalls not only in the higher elevations and close to the Great Lakes, but right down to the beaches. Such a front will be moving through the region early this week, and the snow it produces will be just the next step in a process that will cover most of the east to the north of the Mason Dixon line with snow over the next couple of weeks. Actually, I expect snow to extend further south in the Appalachians, with the mountains of Virginia and North Carolina getting in on the act before we get too far into February. Overall, the weather pattern is heading toward a place that will be much friendlier to skiers and riders than anything that we have seen for about a month.



The process of laying down snow got started earlier this week, with the Monday system that brought upwards of 5 inches to parts of the Poconos, 6 to 8 to the Catskills and Berkshires, and a general 3 to 6 inches to the mountains of northern New England. The cold front that will rush through on Tuesday night will produce another 2 to 4 in the higher elevations from New York through New England, as well as in western Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and western Maryland, where the only ski area in Maryland is located…Wisp. Western New York and Ohio areas will benefit from lake effect snow over a 24 to 36 hour period, too. The snow squalls throughout the east will also be accompanied by strong winds, and there may be some disruption of lift operations on the taller peaks on Wednesday. In the wake of the front, one of the coldest shots of the season will give snowmakers a great opportunity to cover some of the sins that have been exposed during the recent mild weather. Most areas will resurface, while others will turn their attention to pipe construction. The window of opportunity will last about 48 to 60 hours, because by the weekend, the jet stream and surface winds will deliver another round of mild temps into the east…right now, Saturday looks like a tremendous day on the slopes, with comfortable temps and new snow on which to play, whether its natural or machine made. By late in the weekend, a storm will be taking shape in the centre of the country, and this storm looks to me to have the potential to produce some fairly significant snow early next week. I tend to think that the low will eventually form along the mid Atlantic coast, and unlike the storm of Monday of this week, it will not race out to sea, but rather take its sweet time heading northeastward. The forward speed will be slower because by early next week, higher latitude blocking will be stronger, and that will impede the forward motion of the surface and upper lows. Cold air will not be abundant with the storm, so a mix of sleet and other stuff is not out of the question in central New England, and perhaps as far north as southern New Hampshire and southern Vermont. This one is looking pretty good for the Poconos northward into the Catskills. My discussion later this week will certainly focus on more of the details of this storm.



As next week progresses, were going to witness an overall pattern that favors snowy weather in both the east and the west. Generally it is held that if one end other country is snowy, the other is dry, and that is often the case when the jet stream pattern has a large amplitude…that is, one region has an upper level ridge that promotes tranquil weather, while the other area is under the stormy influence of a trough aloft. Well, what we’re going to see is a relatively low amplitude, but high energy jet stream. Storms will take no more than about 3 days to move from the west coast to the east coast in such a setup. Basically, the same Pacific jet that has caused much of the country to be mild in January will renew frequent snows in the central and northern mountains of the west, and it will threaten the east with snow, because as time goes on, more and more cold air will waiting in the east for the arrival of the systems. Now, as we move into February, high latitude blocking will become more prevalent, and that will serve to slow down the west to east jet more by creating more amplitude…the ridges and troughs will be more distinct, and right now, it looks as though the trough will be found in the east and a ridge will build in the west. That will bring the onset of the most consistent cold that the east has felt since mid December, and it will also bring with it the threat of meaningful snowstorms, too. February looks colder than normal and snowier than normal to me in the east, while the west will be drier than it has been much of this winter. The exception will be the southern Rockies…it, too will be dry, but that’s the way it’s been all season long. Unfortunately, there doesn’t seem to be much hope for a major reversal in the cards for resorts in that part of the country.



So the cool down will continue, in steps, as we head into February. With the Pacific jet suppressed underneath an increasingly cold press of air from Canada, the stage seems to be set for a snowy stretch of weather in the east. Make your plans now…

Mild weekend, then the fun starts...



THE SKIING WEATHERMAN’S WEATHER MISSIVE 01/27/06



For the first time in a month, much of the east has enjoyed a productive week in terms of

Natural snow and snowmaking temps. A combination of Monday’s fast moving system and the backlash that followed has produced more than a foot of snow from Snowshoe, West Virginia northward to the areas of northern Ohio and western and central New York (courtesy of lake effect snow), and some resorts in northern New York (Whiteface) and northern Vermont (Jay Peak, Smuggler’s, Bolton Valley, Sugarbush, and Burke Mountain all ended up with around a foot of fresh snow. The Greens, the Whites, the Berkshires, and the Catskills all picked up meaningful new snow, and areas as far south as Virginia and North Carolina will end this week with a couple of nights of good snowmaking.



The weekend will see the flow at the surface and aloft shift into the west-southwest, and that means that once again, it is going to warm up. That will moisten some of the newly minted machine made snow in the lower elevations, but it will not come with rain…not this weekend, at least…the exception being the mid Atlantic, where a few showers will be running around on Sunday…certainly there won’t be enough to cause any problems. As next week starts, a very complex system will impact the east. There will actually be two systems…the first will be weak in terms of precipitation amounts, and it will set off showers of rain here and there on Monday, with snow confined to the far northern portions of New York and New England. Behind that first weak low, the flow will turn northerly, enough to push the boundary between snow and rain further south…and then the second system will move from the lower lakes into Pennsylvania, with a secondary low to form over the Delmarva Peninsula. The upper low that supports the storm will be fairly robust, and that will help to cool the air further from Pennsylvania northward. The circulation of the upper low and the coastal surface low will continue the cooling process, so what I think we are going to see is a rain changing to snow scenario on a fairly broad scale. That’s a bit unusual, but not unheard of. The transition will take place in the Catskills and Berkshires on Monday afternoon, and in the evening further south, in the Poconos. By that time, some pretty good snow will be falling further west in Pennsylvania and Ohio, as well as West Virginia and Maryland. The storm will be a slow mover, due to a strengthening block of high pressure out over the Atlantic. One other high pressure center worth noting is the one that will be over Quebec as the early week storm develops. The high will help to circulate low level cold air southward, and this is a component that has been missing with just about every storm for the past month. When it’s all said and done, I think that the ski areas from the central Appalachians northward into northern New England will have a nice snowfall from this complicated situation…on the order of 6-12 inches. That is a very early look at amounts, and I plan to update over the weekend as the whole mess unfolds, so check back for later thinking.



Beyond the early week storm, February promises to be a very exciting month for forecasters…cold arctic air will be descending into the continental United States, and right now it looks as though the focus of the bulk of the cold will be from the Great Lakes eastward. With blocking developing over the Atlantic, a ridge building over the western U.S., a trough becoming more persistent over the east, and a Pacific jet loaded with energy and moisture cutting underneath the push of cold, we can expect storm threats to pop up on the east coast every three or four days until further notice. Although ski areas would prefer to have the bulk of their snowmaking over and done with by February, sometimes Mother Nature has different ideas. Those that want to build bases for the sake of late season staying power will certainly have the cold air with which to work in the next couple of weeks, and after the warmth and wetness of January, they most certainly have the water. The bottom line is that the prospects for eastern resorts for February and March, including the President’s Day holiday period, are excellent. The prospects for sleep for forecasters trying to keep up all the action on the weather maps the next few weeks are not so good….



If you are headed to the west in the next month of so, the Pacific jet will provide additional snowfall from time to time, but when the ridge builds on the west coast about ten days or so from now, you’ll have to get by with just bluebird skies. There is ample snow north of a Tahoe to Pueblo, Colorado line…in fact; there might be too much snow in Washington, where several tree well deaths have occurred in recent weeks. It has been quite a remarkable turn around from last season in the Pacific Northwest…if you remember, many resorts in that region…an area that usually gets ridiculous amounts of snow…had very little snow last season. This year it has been bombs away since the beginning of the season. This winter in the east has been one of contrasts, as well. Cold in December, mild in January, and now, all signs point to a return to cold and snow in February…starting with a real forecasting challenge early next week…stay tuned.

Lookin' good for everyone.