Posted: Fri Dec 16, 2011 4:27 pm
So I have been bored today (no skiing since it sucks) so I spent alot of time in front of the computer researching and reading up on this potential weather pattern change coming after Christmas. It seems pretty promising as a matter of fact. This is a article I found easiest to read :p
"Long Term Outlook" (Updated 12/13)
A slow pattern change is now evident on most teleconnection indices. A SSW (sudden stratospheric warming) event is now slowly ongoing on the Asian side of the Arctic. The statosphere is close relately the AO and position of the PV. Over the last few months, the statosphere has recorded near record cold mean temperatures, but signs of a slow warming trend on now ongoing. This may lend hand to an excellent January for winter lovers if all goes as planned. The SSW will likely relax the positive anomalous arctic oscillation and help to slowly reposition the polar vortex, which appears to be slowly moving towards the Atlantic. This will hopefully begin to open the floodgates to the Arctic by late in December. Current ensemble guidance supports the heart of the cold air centered around Christmas day give or take.
The current seven day mild period we are in for the time being was my outlined mild period in mid December. The pattern is very hostile and serves little to no potential for snowfall over the next 7 days for most locations east of the Ohio Valley except for possibly far northern Maine. Looking below at my December outlook issues back at the end of November, conditions are lining up almost perfectly as far as the development of the month of December. This second mild period currently should give way to a colder period late month. The MJO is showing signs of dwindling significance as ensemble and operational guidance suggests it may be headed into the circle of death with lower wavelength impact after traversing through unfavorable phase 5. ECMWF ensemble support is beginning to show signs of a negative NAO, but it remains east based in the long range. Looking at storm chances, there are a few dates of significance especially towards the 21-22 of the month. Given the continued hostile pattern, it is more likely this system is a significant snowstorm for parts of the Great Lakes or Ohio Valley. None the less there is the potential for overrunning wintry precipitation in the northwest given the similarities to a southwest flow event. Also towards Christmas, there is the potential for a storm system, but less certainty on long range guidance. Temperatures will remain above normal for the next seven days with a lowering trend towards Christmas with possible below normal temperatures. Snow chances remain minimal for the shorter term.
Apparently this is a pretty rare thing and from what I read, we could be in for a major January as far as snow and cold goes. Im keeping my fingers crossed.
"Long Term Outlook" (Updated 12/13)
A slow pattern change is now evident on most teleconnection indices. A SSW (sudden stratospheric warming) event is now slowly ongoing on the Asian side of the Arctic. The statosphere is close relately the AO and position of the PV. Over the last few months, the statosphere has recorded near record cold mean temperatures, but signs of a slow warming trend on now ongoing. This may lend hand to an excellent January for winter lovers if all goes as planned. The SSW will likely relax the positive anomalous arctic oscillation and help to slowly reposition the polar vortex, which appears to be slowly moving towards the Atlantic. This will hopefully begin to open the floodgates to the Arctic by late in December. Current ensemble guidance supports the heart of the cold air centered around Christmas day give or take.
The current seven day mild period we are in for the time being was my outlined mild period in mid December. The pattern is very hostile and serves little to no potential for snowfall over the next 7 days for most locations east of the Ohio Valley except for possibly far northern Maine. Looking below at my December outlook issues back at the end of November, conditions are lining up almost perfectly as far as the development of the month of December. This second mild period currently should give way to a colder period late month. The MJO is showing signs of dwindling significance as ensemble and operational guidance suggests it may be headed into the circle of death with lower wavelength impact after traversing through unfavorable phase 5. ECMWF ensemble support is beginning to show signs of a negative NAO, but it remains east based in the long range. Looking at storm chances, there are a few dates of significance especially towards the 21-22 of the month. Given the continued hostile pattern, it is more likely this system is a significant snowstorm for parts of the Great Lakes or Ohio Valley. None the less there is the potential for overrunning wintry precipitation in the northwest given the similarities to a southwest flow event. Also towards Christmas, there is the potential for a storm system, but less certainty on long range guidance. Temperatures will remain above normal for the next seven days with a lowering trend towards Christmas with possible below normal temperatures. Snow chances remain minimal for the shorter term.
Apparently this is a pretty rare thing and from what I read, we could be in for a major January as far as snow and cold goes. Im keeping my fingers crossed.
